Monday, October 6, 2014

As the tide turns...


Sports gambling is a hobby that takes patience and a steady hand to achieve any level of success and profitability from.  This month has been one of my proudest pieces of work yet in sports handicapping and a testament to those two skills.  When down a large amount of money, it is easy to get in way over your head and making bets that will sink you further into the hole allowing the likes of Tommy Knuckles to put his kids in private school.  Sorry bookie, not this month.  I will take my monopoly money in crisp new bills.

I went from being down just over $3,100 to coming all the way back and being up $600.  I am proud of this, happy for the modest win and ready to attack the month of October as I feel I have a good read on the current climate in college football.
Don't get your picks from this guy


Where I was right: Colorado State easily covered over Tulsa.  The line shot up to -18.5 for CSU but even that was an easy cover as the Rams won by 25.  This might be Tulsa's worse team in a few decades.  Party might be over however.  I doubt Vegas overvalues them much longer.  Cat might be out of the bag as well for CSU.  They are a legit threat to win the Mountain West and I will be surprised to see them have such a soft line again anytime soon.


This guy at QB equals easy money
The Packers also made swiss cheese of the Vikings.  With Christian Ponder as a late starter for Minnesota, the game was all but a lock by kickoff.  Green Bay won by 32 and it could have been more.  The NFL can be a very difficult league to pick against the spread.  Every once in a while however you see a betting spot that is easy money.  This was one of those times.



I also nailed my fourth straight teaser this week shown below:Baylor -4 over Texas, Clemson over North Carolina -1.5, Green Bay over Minnesota +4San Diego over NY Jets +4.5.  Risk $500 to win $420. 

The Chargers runaway win over the Jets capped off another four teamer that caused me little stress and an easy profit. 

Where I was wrong:  One of the few blemishes I had from another four figure profit weekend was East Carolina failing to cover -39.5 over SMU.  SMU finally showed a pulse on offense despite getting run over on defense again.  EZU has a mediocre defense but I think SMU's offense is finally starting to show a pulse and click after a devastating start to the season that saw their Quarterback quit the team along with their head coach.  I will pay very close attention to the Ponies as maybe the hate for SMU has gone too far and there might be value in them. 

Overall: I had just over a $1,000 win this weekend.  I made some successful last minute plays placing wagers on Mississippi State over Texas A&M , the Bears over 23 total points against Carolina and Notre Dame over Stanford.  I also picked a dud in the Chicago Bears losing in inept fashion to Carolina as I had them +1.5.  The Bears were up 14 going into halftime.  Jay Cutler had just an awful game along with the Bears secondary.  Onwards and upwards.   

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