Houston vs UCF Preview

UCF is now a 3 to 4 point underdog tonight against Houston with the total points projected to be at 50.5.  The Cougars have had an up and down season which saw them lose to Texas San-Antonio to then comeback, cover the spread and give #18 BYU a real challenge.

 Last time UCF played at Houston, we beat the Cougs 40-33 in a shootout.  This game got UCF into the top 25 in both the Coaches and AP poll.  It also earned Jeff Godfrey C-USA Player of the Week honors.

Uncle Luke is my homeboy

Unlike years past Houston has a more balanced attack.  Sophomore QB John O'Korn is averaging about 211 yards passing yards and as a team averaging just over 160 rushing yards per game.  After beating the tar out of floundering UNLV, Houston has now played six straight quarters of decent football after a tough tough start.  On defense Houston is 24th in the country in points allowed.  That might very well be due to soft competition playing the likes of Grambling and UNLV.  Against UTSA and BYU, Houston allowed an average of 30 points.  They did a stellar job though of stopping a high flying BYU offense the second half of that game.  Like UCF, Houston opens conference play today.

UCF comes into this game with one of our top wide receivers in Rannell Hall out for the first half after a suspect targeting penalty two weeks ago against Bethune Cookman.  UCF' offensive line has shown vulnerabilities and not allowed Sophomore Quarterback Justin Holman much time to get the ball away to his corps wide receivers.  I expect UCF to finally start feeding the ball to RB William Stanback as the first string rusher despite O'Leary's early stubbornness to play Dontravious Wilson as the primary tailback.

If we can finally find some semblance of a running game, UCF will greatly improve their chances for victory.  The Knights cannot force Holman to win this game thru the air. His decision making and accuracy are not where it needs to be.  I consider UCF fortunate to not have more turnovers early this season because Holman has thrown a quite a few questionable passes that had a high percentage of interception that we got away with.  Houston secondary is fast and they love to gamble.  If Holman does not improve on his decision making, it might be a long night for UCF.  On defense, a key matchup to pay close attention to will be Houston former five star WR Deontay Greenberry going up against our #1 CB in Jacoby Glenn.  Glenn who had a freshmen All-America caliber season and has continued his stellar play in 2014 despite a handful of mistakes.  He will lead our secondary which will be key as I do not expect a lot of points tonight. I do not believe the controversy surrounding O'Leary have been a distraction for the Knights.  UCF is if nothing else disciplined and strong mentally.

While I have little to no trust in our passing game, Justin Holman and our offensive line, there are far too many variables, unknowns and unpredictability surrounding this Houston team to consider them a clear favorite.

The only betting value I see in this game is the UCF money line at +130 if you absolutely must wager on this game as I see this game as a coin flip with Houston being only a slight favorite due to home field.  I however will be saving my monopoly money for this weekend.