Bets for the week...

I have been on fire this football season and I have no intention of letting up.  I am up $1,800 this last week and am very confident about my selections going into this weekend.  My bookie Tommy Knuckles is up A LOT of monopoly dollars due to some Wall Street hot shots who like to make four figure wagers going 2-18 this past weekend.  Time to get some of that Wall Street money my way. Lets get to the picks:

Duke +3 over Georgia Tech, risking $110 to win $100: Duke (4-1) just had a bye week coming off a tough loss to Miami.  Georgia Tech meanwhile is coming off a big home win against those same Miami Hurricanes.  GT is 5-0 and their triple option offense appears to be clicking. Playing at home against Duke, this should be a lock for the Yellow Jackets right? Not quite.  Duke has has two weeks to prepare for this Georgia Tech offense.  David Cutcliffe is one of the most underrated coaches in the country and will have the Blue Devils ready.  Georgia Tech while undefeated has shown themselves to be vulnerable beating Georgia Southern by only 4 points and at times struggling against a bad Tulane side.  I like Duke straight up.  

BYU vs UCF Under 47 points, Risking $220 to win $200:  UCF has a pathetic offense.

Taysom Hill recovering from surgery

It is becoming more apparent by the week that UCF will be carried by their defense this campaign.  BYU lost their darkhorse heisman candidate quarterback in Taysom Hill last week adding injury to insult
as they lost to in state rival Utah State bursting their playoff aspirations.  They are also nursing major injuries on both sides of the ball.  BYU has a bad secondary but I do not believe UCF's anemic offense will be able to expose Cougars weaknesses.  The line has moved down to 44.5 as sharp money pounded that line down from the 47 points I got originally.  While 2.5 points is significant, I think there is still value in that low line of 44.5 total points.

The USF bandwagon is empty

East Carolina -14.5 over USF, risking $220 to win $200:  USF is a bad team.  There is no way around it.  That stadium will be empty and USF will have no home field advantage.  I like the Pirates big breaking the hearts of the hundreds of USF fans that actually show up to the game.  While EZU struggled on defense last week, they will step up this weekend against the 117th ranked passing and 95th ranked rushing offense.  USF makes UCF' offense look like the New Orleans Saints.  While our directionally challenged neighbors from Tampa have a good defense, I have a hard time believing they will contain this high flying Pirate offense for four quarters.  Take EZU to win big.

Memphis -7 over Houston, Risking $240 to win $200:  Memphis is the surprise team of the AAC.  With a fairly easy conference schedule, Memphis might actually be the favorites to win the conference title this season. Their biggest obstacle lies in the Houston Cougars who lost in pathetic form to UCF last week.  The Cougars lost their #2 Wide Receiver Daniel Spencer to an ACL tear this week and will be starting Freshman Quarterback Greg Ward Jr over struggling John O'Korn.  The wheels are falling off for a Houston side that had high expectations going into this season.  These are two teams trending in opposite directions.  The line is now at 8.5.  I still find value in this line.  Memphis wins big.

Texas A&M -3 over Ole Miss, Risking $200 to win $200

Four team teaser: 
Duke +16 over Duke
LSU vs Florida under 60 points
EZU -2 over USF
Steelers +15 over the Cleveland Browns
Risking $500 to win $417

UCF vs BYU Preview..

Bleacher report writer Samuel Benson posted a good preview for the UCF vs BYU football game this Thursday night.  Click on the hyperlink to read.

Nick Patti likely to see playing time on Thursday

From the UCF perspective, the one thing Benson did not address is that Justin Holman is on a short leech for this game.  I fully expect Holman to continue his erratic play and that we see local Dr. Phillips graduate Nick Patti in early this game.  The midweek line for the game is UCF a -3.5 point favorite.

As the tide turns...

Sports gambling is a hobby that takes patience and a steady hand to achieve any level of success and profitability from.  This month has been one of my proudest pieces of work yet in sports handicapping and a testament to those two skills.  When down a large amount of money, it is easy to get in way over your head and making bets that will sink you further into the hole allowing the likes of Tommy Knuckles to put his kids in private school.  Sorry bookie, not this month.  I will take my monopoly money in crisp new bills.

I went from being down just over $3,100 to coming all the way back and being up $600.  I am proud of this, happy for the modest win and ready to attack the month of October as I feel I have a good read on the current climate in college football.

Don't get your picks from this guy

Where I was right: Colorado State easily covered over Tulsa.  The line shot up to -18.5 for CSU but even that was an easy cover as the Rams won by 25.  This might be Tulsa's worse team in a few decades.  Party might be over however.  I doubt Vegas overvalues them much longer.  Cat might be out of the bag as well for CSU.  They are a legit threat to win the Mountain West and I will be surprised to see them have such a soft line again anytime soon.

This guy at QB equals easy money

The Packers also made swiss cheese of the Vikings.  With Christian Ponder as a late starter for Minnesota, the game was all but a lock by kickoff.  Green Bay won by 32 and it could have been more.  The NFL can be a very difficult league to pick against the spread.  Every once in a while however you see a betting spot that is easy money.  This was one of those times.



I also nailed my fourth straight teaser this week shown below:Baylor -4 over Texas, Clemson over North Carolina -1.5, Green Bay over Minnesota +4San Diego over NY Jets +4.5.  Risk $500 to win $420. 

The Chargers runaway win over the Jets capped off another four teamer that caused me little stress and an easy profit. 

Where I was wrong:  One of the few blemishes I had from another four figure profit weekend was East Carolina failing to cover -39.5 over SMU.  SMU finally showed a pulse on offense despite getting run over on defense again.  EZU has a mediocre defense but I think SMU's offense is finally starting to show a pulse and click after a devastating start to the season that saw their Quarterback quit the team along with their head coach.  I will pay very close attention to the Ponies as maybe the hate for SMU has gone too far and there might be value in them. 

Overall: I had just over a $1,000 win this weekend.  I made some successful last minute plays placing wagers on Mississippi State over Texas A&M , the Bears over 23 total points against Carolina and Notre Dame over Stanford.  I also picked a dud in the Chicago Bears losing in inept fashion to Carolina as I had them +1.5.  The Bears were up 14 going into halftime.  Jay Cutler had just an awful game along with the Bears secondary.  Onwards and upwards.   

Houston vs UCF Preview

UCF is now a 3 to 4 point underdog tonight against Houston with the total points projected to be at 50.5.  The Cougars have had an up and down season which saw them lose to Texas San-Antonio to then comeback, cover the spread and give #18 BYU a real challenge.

 Last time UCF played at Houston, we beat the Cougs 40-33 in a shootout.  This game got UCF into the top 25 in both the Coaches and AP poll.  It also earned Jeff Godfrey C-USA Player of the Week honors.

Uncle Luke is my homeboy

Unlike years past Houston has a more balanced attack.  Sophomore QB John O'Korn is averaging about 211 yards passing yards and as a team averaging just over 160 rushing yards per game.  After beating the tar out of floundering UNLV, Houston has now played six straight quarters of decent football after a tough tough start.  On defense Houston is 24th in the country in points allowed.  That might very well be due to soft competition playing the likes of Grambling and UNLV.  Against UTSA and BYU, Houston allowed an average of 30 points.  They did a stellar job though of stopping a high flying BYU offense the second half of that game.  Like UCF, Houston opens conference play today.

UCF comes into this game with one of our top wide receivers in Rannell Hall out for the first half after a suspect targeting penalty two weeks ago against Bethune Cookman.  UCF' offensive line has shown vulnerabilities and not allowed Sophomore Quarterback Justin Holman much time to get the ball away to his corps wide receivers.  I expect UCF to finally start feeding the ball to RB William Stanback as the first string rusher despite O'Leary's early stubbornness to play Dontravious Wilson as the primary tailback.

If we can finally find some semblance of a running game, UCF will greatly improve their chances for victory.  The Knights cannot force Holman to win this game thru the air. His decision making and accuracy are not where it needs to be.  I consider UCF fortunate to not have more turnovers early this season because Holman has thrown a quite a few questionable passes that had a high percentage of interception that we got away with.  Houston secondary is fast and they love to gamble.  If Holman does not improve on his decision making, it might be a long night for UCF.  On defense, a key matchup to pay close attention to will be Houston former five star WR Deontay Greenberry going up against our #1 CB in Jacoby Glenn.  Glenn who had a freshmen All-America caliber season and has continued his stellar play in 2014 despite a handful of mistakes.  He will lead our secondary which will be key as I do not expect a lot of points tonight. I do not believe the controversy surrounding O'Leary have been a distraction for the Knights.  UCF is if nothing else disciplined and strong mentally.

While I have little to no trust in our passing game, Justin Holman and our offensive line, there are far too many variables, unknowns and unpredictability surrounding this Houston team to consider them a clear favorite.

The only betting value I see in this game is the UCF money line at +130 if you absolutely must wager on this game as I see this game as a coin flip with Houston being only a slight favorite due to home field.  I however will be saving my monopoly money for this weekend.

Sports bets for the week of 9/29 - 10/5

September was a topsy turvy month of sports betting.  I was down at one point just over 3k.  I have rallied to be down a mere $200.  This is all in monopoly money of course sports betting is still technically illegal in all states outside of Nevada.  That will soon change but that is a blog for another day.

I will refer to my fictional bookie who collects in Monopoly money moving forward as Tommy Knuckles.  Tommy Knuckles is a wuss despite his tenacious name.  He is a family man who stresses too much about the daily fluctuations of his sportsbook and likes to wear mom jeans.  He is a good guy who is reliable and trustworthy.  When looking for a bookie, that is all you can really ask for.  We settle the first Monday of every month so I have one weekend to turn my roller coaster month to a modest gain.

Below are my early picks for the weekend:

East Carolina (from now on to be referred to as EZU) -39.5 over Southern Millionaires University, AKA George Bush College, AKA SMU
Risk $220 to win $200

Colorado State -14.5 over Tulsa Risk $220 to win $200

Green Bay Packers -9.5 over Minnesota Fighting Teddy Bridgewater's Risk $220 to win $200

Four team teaser: Baylor -4 over Texas, Clemson over North Carolina -1.5, Green Bay over Minnesota +4 and San Diego over NY Jets +4.5 Risk $500 to win $420.


I love the Packers this week.  I think the Fighting Teddy Bridgewaters are in way too deep this Thursday night.  Atlanta is trash on the road and considering that this was Bridgewaters first start for the Vikings, it was difficult to game plan for him.  I think Discount Double Check Rodgers will go to town on the suspect Minnesota secondary and the bright lights of Lambeau Field will be too much for the pride of Miami Northwestern.

Tulsa is trash along with most of the rest of the AAC.  I still have PTSD from watching them play Tulane the opening Thursday of this past college football season.  The fact I watched this game should tell you a lot about much I yearn for football come early September. Colorado State is a team getting better every week.  CSU also has arguably one of the best running back's in the country in Alabama transfer Dee Hart.  Hart is crushing teams right now just over six yards a carry.  CSU is a team that likes to air it out as they average over 300 yards passing.  Now that they have balance, Colorado State is becoming a better team by the week.  Tulsa is 124th in the country in points allowed are are going to get demolished this weekend.  While I will likely make money off of this game, it breaks my heart to think of what Dee Hart could have been if he would have come to UCF.

















Finally I like EZU -39.5 over the Southern Millionaires because SMU is trash and I will continue to bet against them until I lose.  The off season can't get here soon enough for the ponies.  June Jones made his resignation official this last September 8th despite the fact he actually quit working over two years ago.  SMU should just do away with football and focus all their efforts on basketball.  The millionaires are doing a stellar job of cheating, I mean recruiting top basketball talent to play under Larry Brown.  SMU football is now not even the shadow of the program that wrote the blue print of modern day SEC deception and dishonesty back in the 1980's that led to it's meteoric rise.  EZU on the other hand is a pissed off program with a chip on its shoulder.  They are beating the ever living tar out of P5 programs and a few bad breaks away from being undefeated.  The Piratas are going to crush teams in the AAC this season.  They are still butt hurt they never got invited to the now defunct Big East and are determined to embarrass any and all opponents in conference this season.  I have a sick feeling to my stomach EZU is going to save their best for UCF on December 4th.  

About me...

Greetings and welcome to my sports blog.

My name is Carlos A. Alvarado and I fancy myself a writer.  I have been published in the Baltimore Sun, Orlando Sentinel and various other online mediums.  I am narcissistic enough to think my sports thoughts and opinions matter and should be shared with the world. Hence why I created the blog.

I am a big Orlando City Soccer supporter, UCF football die hard and degenerate sports gambler.   In this blog I will share my random thoughts on Orlando City, UCF Football, The Orlando Magic, sports gambling and just general musings.  Cheers and thanks for reading.